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Ok plant jobs for mates might be a more accurate term.the nats did contest this in 2019 when it was less regional and did ok
Either way I think he’s run out of road now that it’s no longer a safe seat and they want to put someone else on before they lose it
im pretty sure the Labor have come to the same conclusion i did and that was that this seat was no longer regarded as safe and Stephen Jones vote was only dropping and that he would of lost it in 2028 if he didnt this time around in 2025 and have decided to try another candidate to hopefully save the seat now and then hopefully get a sophmore surge in 2028. i think labor have done the same thing in Moreton as well.
Is it possible that a high profile community independent win this seat by splitting the vote? Sort of a reserve teal or Dai Le factor. The independents cleaned up on Shellharbour council results and even got 2/2 quotas in one ward.
Eg. takes 10% from, 10% from the Libs and the picks up the nongreen minor party preferences (16% combined primary last election)
Can’t see the Lib candidate winning though. Word around the traps is he might be a ‘flat earther’. Surely the coalition could have put someone better up!
“The only known contender for Labor preselection is Keely O’Brien, general manger of corporate affairs for the Council of Australian Life Insurers. However, O’Brien is of the Right and the consensus appears to be that the Right will not formally oppose the national executive ratifying the nominee of Jones’s own Left faction. The report further relates that an informal deal reserves Whitlam to the Left and the state seat of Shoalhaven to the Right, but some consider the Right is owed a seat after Anthony Albanese imposed Ashvini Ambihaipahar of the Left in Barton.”
N40s and national exc preselections should not exist. The rank and file in the area should make the decision
@mick but they wont because in the labor party they pick and choose based on who is a member of the proper faction and who has the best connections
Hi all
I am an Independent Candidate for Whitlam. I have enjoyed reading the comments!
It’s time for common sense in Whitlam.
https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1FcofCh14F/
Cheers Paddy
So the Labor party (like the LNP) are now also nominating a candidate who previously contested the seat of Cunningham as a member of a different party, have no support of the local branch members and no meaningful ties with the community
@welcome paddy. What are your policies etc. Good luck at the election.
@daniel from whose the candidate? i heard its likely to be Carol Berry.
@john yes the candidate is Carol Berry, announced yesterday, reported by local media
@Daniel she never acutally contested Cunningham though she was on the team who helped the greens steal the seat in the by election way back when
@Daniel – to my knowledge Carol Berry is merely the frontrunner for preselection, not the candidate. There’s been no official announcement that she is candidate.
She is not she is the frontrunner but as she is of the left and the fact they will want to get a candidate on asap the executive will essentially insert her into the seat without a branch vote
@Darth Vader – your last part about her being shot straight into the seat without a branch vote reminded me of the Cunningham by-election in 2002. Sharon Bird was preselected without a branch vote and somehow lost what would have usually been an easy Labor retain.
I don’t think it will happen in Whitlam (the Liberals would likely be the beneficiaries) but food for thought.
I think the writing’s on the wall. With the infighting, disagreement and general disarray in the Shellharbour Labor party in recent years, it sounds like head office is taking the lead on this one
Paddy Lupton the ind seems to have reasonable policies and could be the benficiary of lackluster candidates on both sides.
@james yea well they did the same thing in Barton so id say we will see the same thing here
@Daniel @John – it’s kind of weird. The Shellharbour Labor branch has struggled a lot in the past 5 years, yet they still have an iron grip on the southern Illawarra. Labor held Shellharbour against the independent mayor of Shellharbour with only about a 1% swing against them. Whitlam is still good as gold for now, and Jones still won all the Illawarra booths pretty easily. I think the squabbles ever since Chris Homer’s run in 2023 state election have definitely intensified, Homer was re-elected to the mayoralty dominating most of the booths.
If Berry was shot right in here, I could actually see a feasible independent (e.g. Paddy Moylan, or eve Chris Homer surprisingly) actually polling well here. It’s important to remember a chunk of Wingecarribee is in the state electorate of Wollondilly which fell to a Climate 200-backed independent. Don’t think a teal would win Whitlam, but I think there is a growing appetite for moderate, sensible independents in the area. And if one polled well running against Labor, I could see an IND gain or preferences could deliver what I would see as a massive upset gain for the Liberals.
@James agreed the only problem is i dont think there is enough vote out side liberal and labor to get an independent into the 2cp. hed have to get preferences from the the different minor parties including the greens and strip enough votes off the libs o get into the 2cp against labor but could certainly win if he did. i think jones would of lost this in 2028 if he didnt this time especially if labor were still in govt. libs still and outside chance given then makeup of the seat though.